Shots on Target Betting: What Counts and How Bets Are Settled
Learn what counts as a shot on target, how posts, blocks and penalties are treated, and how UK bookmakers settle these bets.
Key Takeaways
- A shot on target normally counts when a deliberate attempt scores, is saved by the goalkeeper, or is stopped by the last defender when it would otherwise have gone in.
- Hitting the post or bar and staying out does not count. Neither does a normal blocked shot with the goalkeeper or another defender still behind the blocker.
- For how the bet is settled, the bookmaker's rules and official data provider matter more than what the replay looked like. Standard shots-on-target markets are usually settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Shots-on-target bets sound simple until you have one riding on a shot that looks absolutely on target... and the bookmaker says it was blocked.
That happens because you're not really betting on what the attempt looked like on TV. You're betting on how the event is officially classified. In the UK, bookmakers such as William Hill and Paddy Power use Opta as the statistics provider, and its definitions decide whether an attempt is recorded as a shot on target, a blocked shot, a cross or something else.
So the useful rule is pretty simple: first work out what Opta would call the attempt, then check the exact market rules on your bet slip. If the bookmaker says it settles the market using Opta, Opta's final classification is what matters.
What actually counts as a shot on target?
Opta defines a shot on target as a deliberate attempt to score that is on target. In normal English, that means three main things count:
- A goal.
- A shot the goalkeeper saves.
- A goal-bound shot stopped by the last defender, where the ball would otherwise have gone in.
That last one is where people get caught.
Imagine a striker shoots from eight yards. If the goalkeeper saves it, easy: shot on target. If a defender blocks it but the goalkeeper is still behind him, that is normally a blocked shot, not a shot on target. But if the defender is the final barrier on the goal line and stops a goal-bound effort, it can still count as a shot on target.
So “it was heading towards goal” is not enough by itself. Who stopped it, and whether anyone was still behind the blocker, can completely change how the attempt is recorded.
Does hitting the post count?
Usually, no.
A shot that hits the post or crossbar and stays out is classed as off target. It can be centimetres from going in and still not count, which feels a bit ridiculous when you have a bet riding on it... but that is the definition.
Three outcomes are worth keeping straight:
- Post or bar, then out: no shot on target.
- Post or bar, then in: it is a goal, so it counts as a shot on target.
- Goalkeeper saves the shot onto the post and it stays out: normally still a save, so it can count as a shot on target, subject to the final event coding.
Do penalties count as shots on target?
Yes, but only if the outcome would count for any other shot.
A penalty is not automatically a shot on target just because it came from the spot:
- A scored penalty counts.
- A penalty saved by the goalkeeper counts.
- A penalty that goes wide or over does not count.
- A penalty that hits the woodwork and stays out does not count.
The bigger betting catch is the time period. A penalty taken during normal play can count towards a standard shots-on-target market. A kick in a penalty shootout normally does not, because standard player shots-on-target bets are generally settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
So if your player has one shot on target in the match and then scores in the shootout, that shootout penalty normally does not turn a 2+ shots-on-target bet into a winner.
What about headers, free kicks and deflections?
Headers and direct free kicks can both count. The body part or type of restart is not what decides it. The question is whether it was a deliberate attempt to score and whether the outcome meets the shot-on-target definition.
Deflections are where things get messier.
A goal-bound shot blocked by an ordinary defender is generally recorded as blocked. A last-line block can count as on target. And if an attempt was going wide before a defender diverted it into their own net, that does not automatically turn the attacker's original shot into a shot on target.
This is exactly why judging these bets from a replay can be frustrating. A tiny difference in the defender's position or the original trajectory can change the official stat.
Does a cross saved by the goalkeeper count?
Not necessarily. In fact, if it was genuinely a cross, usually not.
A “cross” here means a pass played from a wider area towards teammates near the goal. William Hill's current football rules explicitly say that a cross does not count as a shot on target even if the goalkeeper has to deal with it.
So picture a winger overhitting a cross. The ball is drifting under the bar, the goalkeeper jumps and palms it over. From your sofa, that can look exactly like a save. But if the action is classified as a cross rather than a deliberate attempt to score, the winger doesn't get a shot on target.
Our William Hill review covers the wider betting and casino product, but for an individual bet the live market rules are what matter.
What do 1+, 2+ and over 1.5 shots on target mean?
The notation is easier than it looks:
- 1+ shots on target = the player needs at least one.
- 2+ shots on target = the player needs at least two.
- 3+ shots on target = the player needs at least three.
An “over 1.5 shots on target” bet is effectively the same threshold as 2+. You cannot have half a shot, so the player needs two or more.
Where it gets less simple is participation. Bookmakers can have different rules for players who start on the bench, come on as substitutes or never enter the match at all. Paddy Power, for example, voids player shots-on-target bets when the selected player does not take part. A player counts as taking part if he comes on at any point in the 90 minutes plus injury time, so a late substitute with no shots is a loser, not a void.
So before placing a player-stat bet, check the specific market rules rather than assuming every bookmaker handles substitutions the same way. If you are comparing betting sites more generally, our best UK betting sites guide is the better starting point.
Combining legs needs extra care. At William Hill, if any selection in a Bet Builder is void, the whole Bet Builder is void, whatever happened to the other legs. Paddy Power voids a combined shots-on-target bet if any named player plays no part in the match.
Normal time, extra time and shootouts
This is probably the easiest settlement rule to forget.
For a standard shots-on-target market, “normal time” means the scheduled 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time doesn't normally count unless the market specifically says it does.
Say you back a striker to have 2+ shots on target in an FA Cup tie:
- He has one shot on target in the first 90 minutes.
- He has another in the 105th minute during extra time.
On a normal 90-minute player shots-on-target market, you still only have one qualifying shot on target. The extra-time attempt does not rescue the bet.
The same principle applies to shootouts. Unless you specifically backed a market that includes them, those events sit outside the standard 90-minute settlement period.
Paddy Power's current shots-on-target rules also state that these bets are settled on 90 minutes plus injury time unless otherwise stated, and William Hill's rules say penalties scored in shootouts won't count. Our Paddy Power review covers the operator more broadly.
Shots and shots on target are different markets
The names are close, and the settlement is not. A shot that hits the post and stays out is off target, so it does nothing for a shots-on-target bet. It is still a shot, though, so it counts in a plain player shots market.
The same goes for a shot blocked by an outfield player with the goalkeeper behind him: no use for shots on target, fine for total shots. Before you place the bet, check which of the two markets is on your slip.
Why your bookmaker can disagree with what you saw
Because football stats are classifications, not just a description of where the ball travelled.
A shot can be travelling straight towards the goal and still be recorded as blocked. A ball the goalkeeper tips over the bar can still be a cross. A touch that looks obvious on one replay may be coded differently once the official event data is finalised.
Annoying? Absolutely, especially when one stat decides the entire bet. But there has to be one settlement source, otherwise every close call turns into an argument over slow-motion replays.
So if your bet looks wrong, don't start with “but I saw it hit the keeper”. Start with the market rules and the named data provider.
Can a settled bet change later?
Occasionally, yes. Data providers sometimes review an event after the match and recode it. William Hill's rules say Opta may go back and make amendments to ensure accuracy, and that it settles all markets on Opta's final decision.
So a shot that showed as blocked on Saturday night can become a shot on target once the data is finalised, or the other way round. If a result looks wrong straight after full time, check it again the next day before you raise it.
Common shots-on-target examples
- Striker scores from open play: counts.
- Goalkeeper saves a low shot: counts.
- Last defender clears a goal-bound shot off the line: can count as a shot on target.
- Defender blocks the shot with the goalkeeper still behind them: does not count as a shot on target.
- Shot hits the post and stays out: does not count.
- Cross is caught or tipped away by the goalkeeper: does not count merely because the keeper touched it.
- Penalty is scored during normal time: counts.
- Penalty is saved during normal time: counts.
- Penalty hits the bar and stays out: does not count.
- Penalty is scored in a shootout: normally excluded from a standard 90-minute shots-on-target market.
The quickest way to check a disputed bet
If you think a shot should have counted, check these four things in order:
- Read the exact market wording on the bet slip.
- Check the time period: 90 minutes, first half, second half, extra time or something else.
- Check which statistics provider the bookmaker names.
- Use that provider's final classification, not a live-score app or television commentator.
That last point is the one that saves the most pointless arguments. A live-score app can be useful for a quick check, but it doesn't override the bookmaker's published settlement source.
Safer gambling: player stat bets are easy to stack up across a weekend of football, so set a budget before the matches start and keep to it. If gambling is becoming a problem for you or someone you know, the National Gambling Helpline is free and available 24/7 on 0808 8020 133.
Frequently asked questions
Does a saved penalty count as a shot on target?
Yes, if it is taken during the period covered by the market. A goalkeeper save is a shot on target. Penalty shootouts are normally outside standard 90-minute player-stat markets.
Does a goal-line clearance count?
It can. If a goal-bound attempt is stopped by the last defender and would otherwise have gone in, Opta can record it as a shot on target. A normal block with the goalkeeper or another defender behind the blocker does not.
Does hitting the crossbar count?
Not if the ball stays out. A direct shot off the post or crossbar is off target unless the ball subsequently enters the net.
Does a deflected shot count?
It depends on the classification. An ordinary blocked shot is not a shot on target. A last-line block of a goal-bound attempt can be. A deflection that turns an off-target effort into an own goal does not automatically give the attacker a shot on target.
Do extra-time shots count?
Usually not in standard shots-on-target markets. Those are normally settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time unless the bookmaker explicitly says extra time is included.
Alan Woods
Content Editor
Alan reviews casinos the same way he used to assess security risks: nothing gets the benefit of the doubt until it holds up under scrutiny. His cyber security background means he checks the things most reviews overlook, like licensing, how a site handles your data, and what the withdrawal terms actually deliver once the welcome offer is out of the way. He’s a published author as well, so you get the verdict in plain English instead of a technical checklist. In the UK edition, he focuses on UK Gambling Commission licensing, player protections and the terms attached to casino offers.
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